Looks like a big match is shaping up here!

Diana Shnaider’s hard-court profile this season is that of an ultra-dominant player who can sometimes be shaky on her own serve. She has a Match Efficiency of 1.317 and a Dominance Efficiency of 1.361, which shows she has the game to overwhelm anyone. However, she only wins 59.4% of points on her serve, often leaving the door open to tight sets. On the other side of the net, Tereza Valentová offsets a lower Match Efficiency (0.972) with constant aggression on return, averaging 2.64 points won per return game. This ability to break makes up for her lack of raw power and often guarantees longer rallies.

Diana Shnaider will try to use her lefty forehand to drag Tereza off the court, but the Czech has a solid record against left-handers (3 wins in 4 matches) and knows perfectly how to counter those trajectories. Diana’s lack of rhythm, as she hasn’t played since Indian Wells, against a Valentová who is already well dialed-in after her three matches in Miami (qualifying included), should give us a very tight feeling-out first set. With 62.9% of break points saved for Diana and a Tereza who can fight for every return point, seeing this match go to a third set or end with scorelines like 7–5 6–4 is the scenario that interests me here.

Tereza hasn’t beaten a top-20 player yet, but I think this is a great opportunity for her! Diana is in a bit of a slump and hasn’t really won anything since the AO, and her backhand is still a work in progress, something she’s been working on intensively with Bajin.