THE MATCH

The one everyone’s waiting for… and which now almost makes people dream more than a Carlito/Sinner, honestly!

Exciting first of all because it’s being played on the most Latin show court in the United States and, let’s be honest, they really know how to create an atmosphere (please Mr. Gaudenzi, give us a damn M1000 in South America, I’m begging you). Then, because Fonseca has the level. He’s coming off a slightly heated 7/6 7/6 against Sinner in Indian Wells, and we know he’s going to be absolutely fired up, the Brazilian lad! And then, the Brazilians are probably starting to dream: Carlito lost his first match of the year against Medvedev. A brilliant Medvedev, sure, but also a slightly tired Carlito. The Spaniard crashed out against Goffin in his first match here last year, and everyone remembers it. So of course we’re all wondering whether this loss against Daniil throws a wrench into the well-oiled machine he’s been for the last year and a half. Personally, I don’t think so. He recharged the way he likes to, with his little family. Where the shoe might pinch is physically, maybe. Because even in Doha I didn’t think he looked that fresh on his legs either.

On the Brazilian side, the guy just keeps gaining momentum. Still with this new weapon: the volley. And that’s good against Carlito. People now often say that Rinderknech bothers Carlito because he dares to hit crazy shots, shortens the rallies, and comes to the net, sometimes no matter the cost. And I think Fonseca can do something similar. Why? Because he already did it against Sinner last week. Jannik Sinner himself said it: “He dares to go for his shots, and he’s got a lot of power.” Anyway, I’m not telling anyone anything new: Joao is a powerhouse, he already serves very well, he’s brave, but… He struggles with movement, with maintaining intensity consistently, and he’s also a bit lacking in the clutch department on the important points (at least compared to the two extraterrestrials).

So I think he’s going to hurt Carlito at least for a set. The rest will depend on how Carlito feels. Because Sinner’s game against Fonseca, why not, it can turn into a “who’s the better steamroller” contest. But if you’ve got a fully fit Carlito in variation-land mode and in “I get everything back thanks to my insane movement” mode, he can hurt Fonseca a whole lot more…