13/2 !!

The stat is crazy, 13/2 you could say Stefanos is really De Minaur’s daddy on tour!

Without seeing the H2H I was more inclined to think that the match‑up isn’t bad for Stefanos and that on a good day he can do something, but yeah, what he really hates is big servers and guys who can rush his backhand. Even though ADM is capable of taking the ball early and following it to the net, that’s not 100% what defines him, and his game suits Stefanos quite well, who is excellent when he can dictate with his forehand and finish at the net too! The Greek is looking for his best tennis this season; I’m seeing “good” losses and a few disappointments of course, but it’s not too bad in my opinion, I’ve seen him play much worse and I’m actually pretty optimistic for the rest of the season. He’s just had a very good first round despite having to save set points, that’s better.

As for ADM, I have to say I’m torn. I tried to lay him last week and rightly so it seems, it’s not that he’s playing badly but personally I don’t find him as good as before. His serve isn’t impactful enough and we saw against Norrie that when the ball kept coming back and he was forced to take the initiative it wasn’t great either. The speed in Miami helps a bit but his track record here isn’t good, while Stefanos has historically better results for example. With this one‑sided H2H it’s definitely a bet on Tsitsipas’s side, unless it’s already been way too heavily priced into the odds.