Total nonsense

When I picture this match I see 15 different scenarios and something that could go in absolutely any direction

We’ve got two really talented players here who are also capable of the worst. Machac is the guy who’s always ‘injured’ without really being injured, and who can win a tournament in a week where his game suddenly clicks, and Moutet is our little Frenchman who can completely lose it or make his opponent lose it! Moutet’s form is tricky to read, he’s been winning very little this year but you also have to look at how brutal his draws have been. Losses to Alcaraz, Paul, Zverev to start the year, and now he’s just lost to an excellent Kovacevic (and Moutet was sick), then he loses to Giron in Phoenix in three sets, so I don’t want to be too harsh on him either. He’s also trying out a new coach this week, it’s a bit of a transition phase I’d say: either he kickstarts his season and immediately finds some good tennis again, or he’ll try stuff out and get a bit lost before finding himself. What’s certain is that the draw is bad once again.

Because yeah, getting Machac is anything but a gift, the Czech can play like a top 10 guy on a good day or be injured tomorrow, it’s all or nothing with him. For his return in Miami we weren’t expecting anything, and for a set it was absolute garbage against Nava, then he started playing better and Nava collapsed. I didn’t see any sign of injury anyway, so let’s assume his body holds up, but just in case I’d add a very slight handicap if you want to bet on him. Personally I’m on the fence, I really don’t have a handle on this match at all, I don’t know if Moutet’s game can really bother Machac or not at all. The Czech hits a very flat, clean ball and can rush him, and he’s not clumsy at the net either. On the other hand, if too many balls come back, he’s going to overforce and try anything and everything, he can check out mentally really fast, it’s really not straightforward at all.