They’re super hyped about Coco and yet!

Coco Gauff is going through an unprecedented serving crisis. In 2026, she holds the tour record with an average of 7.71 double faults per match. This frailty is amplified by her arm injury, which disrupts her ball toss and her confidence. In her first two rounds in Miami against Cocciaretto and Parks, she dropped the first set each time, scraping through only thanks to her fighting spirit and the support of the crowd. Her nervousness is palpable: she has already committed 112 double faults this season, a record figure that basically hands her opponents almost two free games per match. As I like to say: Coco often wins her matches by losing them. As Benoît Paire would say: "SO much luuuuuuuuuuuck." More seriously, she gets through thanks to her movement and by wearing opponents down in the third set, where she becomes strong. We’re a long way from true top-4 level!

Sorana Cîrstea, although more worn down physically by her marathons against Nosková and Maria, has a major psychological advantage: she has absolutely nothing to lose for her farewell season. While Gauff gets annoyed by her double faults in front of her home crowd, Sorana plays a free, ultra-aggressive brand of tennis. She has shown crazy resilience by turning around tricky situations in her first three rounds. Her handling of pressure moments, with 63 percent of break points saved this season, will be her lethal weapon if the match drags on and Gauff’s arm starts to tire in the Floridian humidity.

The analysis of the official statistics from this early 2026 season reveals a Sorana Cîrstea who is imperious in every area of the game, while Coco Gauff is completely at sea. The Romanian relies on a devastating serve, averaging 0.57 aces per game compared to just 0.17 for the American, which allows her to win an impressive 78.3 percent of her service games. Her superiority is just as striking on return. Cîrstea wins 57.8 percent of points on opponents’ second serves, a number that will really hurt Gauff, who holds the record of the year with her 7.71 double faults per match. These performances translate into a match efficiency rating of 3.072 for Sorana, compared to a low 2.187 for Coco, confirming that the Romanian is statistically much better equipped to prevail despite her underdog odds at 2.66.