Second Polfiss!

The first one had already lived up to all its promises in Shanghai in 2023!

2h40, 33 games, a break caught up by Paul in the deciding set, and a Paul who overall deserved his victory, notably with well-protected service games and a certain aggressiveness on the forehand that really bothered Fils.

Today, things have somewhat changed. Arthur Fils has become both more solid (let me remind you that a few years ago he could spray his forehand all over the place), and even more aggressive. In other words, I'm not sure Paul’s aggressiveness would have as much impact today. Where I think, and I’m not the only one, that Paul will have an advantage is physically. Last year, Arthur was already doing back-to-back quarterfinals between IW and Miami, and he arrived completely burnt out for his quarterfinal here against Mensik. And last week, he seemed a bit exhausted against Zverev in the quarters at IW. The 12-day Masters 1000s do allow some recovery time, and Arthur says he’s feeling pretty fresh. His first two matches have been very (too?) easy, that’s true, but not the last one against Vacherot. However, he plays with such intensity that if we get a physically demanding match, I’d slightly favor Paul, who didn’t play much in IW and is more enduring.

It’s worth noting that we’re in a night session on a packed center court, ready to explode in support of its local player. While Tommy Paul admits that playing at home and sleeping in his own bed gives him a clear advantage, Fils reminds everyone that he loves night sessions and that he plays for this kind of atmosphere. I’ll just note in passing that night session = cooler, more humid conditions, so a more physical match ;).

In more tennis-specific terms, it’s true that Arthur is on fire. He comes out as the almost logical favorite for this match with the bookmakers, because since his return, he’s just been consistently playing excellent tennis. Things have fallen apart at the end of tournaments because he’s still missing a bit of physical stamina. And that’s really the core of my analysis. In terms of match-up, we’re going to get a baseline aggression battle which, in my view, could lead to a few breaks on both sides. I think each player’s game will prevail in alternating phases, and that a lot will come down to who is the more tenacious...