The clásico!

Argentina - Germany: 3–3. Penalty shootout in Miami!

I remember their last match at the Australian Open this year. Historically it wasn’t an easy match-up for the German, and we were expecting a tough battle, at least four sets, but nope. If Cerundolo has won 3 out of 6 matches in their head-to-head, they’re the three oldest matches and all three were on clay, including one in Buenos Aires. When I see the transformation and the level of commitment from the German in Miami, I tell myself it’s going to take something special to beat him, and that he currently deserves his world No. 3 spot. His serve is monstrous, he seems to have found the right balance between aggression and solidity, he managed to make more of a difference in the rallies than Halys in mild and humid conditions, and finally, something I rarely see, he lets out a shout on almost every shot. Of course, his serve and forehand were completely neutralized by Sinner in Indian Wells. But who can really claim to do that?

Fran played a really excellent match against Ugo. The Frenchman’s aggressiveness bothered him hardly at all thanks to his technical quality and a game plan executed to perfection: attack the attacker. He’ll cause more trouble than Quentin Halys in the rallies, but less with the serve. He’s also driven by extreme motivation because of this special tournament for him (the one where he broke through), and by an Argentinian crowd in a trance supporting him.

I think this quarter will be played first, at 3:30 p.m. then, leaving Tiafoe and Sinner for the night session. So right in the middle of the day, in hot and sunny conditions, which will favor Z’s game more than Fran’s.

In terms of match-up, oddly enough I don’t really feel like talking about the tennis side of things, but rather the mental side, because apart from the serve, their games can be on par if Cerundolo is in great form. No, what affects Cerundolo the most for me is how he handles his emotions. Even though he was excellent against Ugo, you could also see he was a bit tense and nervous because of the match, the stakes, and maybe the crowd’s expectations too. If the gap between the two players had been smaller, I’m convinced he would have been pegged back in the second set. That’s why I immediately rule out a 2–0 scoreline for Fran here (well, I don’t think you were heading that way either ;)).