Hiji takes off?

The Indian Wells surprise wants to confirm and consolidate his place in the top 100

Nobody expected to see Hijikata be that monstrous in Indian Wells, and he was clearly overperforming. However, he’s not going to hold that level all season, otherwise he’ll shoot up the rankings quickly (he’d already caught fire at Queen’s before disappearing again). Following it up with Miami was too tough, he was way too tired. No Challenger for him during this little break, which is smart, he’ll be fresh, but the problem is he’s only won one match in Houston in three attempts, this clay doesn’t really suit him. Here we’re more looking to back big servers/aggressive players, which he has been in recent matches, but it doesn’t come as naturally to him as it does to others like Kovacevic, for example.

The American is defending a quarterfinal, he usually lives up to his seeding here, and even though his level on clay is low, Houston is such a unique event that he does well in this tournament. He lost to Brooksby in three sets last year (the eventual winner) and comes in with good confidence thanks to Indian Wells, although that has to be toned down after his surprising first-round loss in Miami to Sakamoto. The Japanese player was on fire in that match and was really hard to break, a nightmare for Kova who didn’t know how to get out of it. A big disappointment, but if you take that setback out, he’s had a very interesting start to the year, and I think he’ll bounce back this week.

He leads 4–1 in the H2H, which is hard to lean on because Hijikata is definitely playing better than in their previous meetings, but in terms of pure tennis Kova still seems a step above to me: more free points on serve, a reliable attacking forehand, and an overall higher level. Hijikata can do good things but he’s sloppy, his second serve can let him down, he’s often tight and still not consistent enough EVERY week to see him as a genuinely dangerous outsider.