Does the magic continue?

Brooksby won the title in 2025 by putting together a tournament that was almost miraculous, the scenarios were so crazy.

4 match points saved against Tabilo, one against Paul, and wins out of nowhere when Brooksby was really in the zone/on a roll. He’s taking a big risk this week as a result and is coming in with questionable form. In his last few tournaments, he’s played matches that were very incomplete with a lack of consistency, he almost looks injured/hampered at times, it’s hard to follow him. My concern is also about the expectations/pressure at this tournament, he’s a player who can tighten up quickly and take time to play freely. With so many points to defend and a first round against a local, he’s not arriving in ideal conditions. Last year he came from the qualies on top of that, whereas now he has to be switched on right away against a player he always has tight matches with. It’s 2–2 in the H2H and all 3-set matches, that’s kind of what I picture between these two very inconsistent players, McDonald is also hard to follow.

This time around McDo seems to be in better form though, he’s played a few good matches and even if there’s no big win, he’s coming in with better feeling than Brooksby. His track record here isn’t great though, but he’s been playing guys like Tiafoe/Kyrgios, which doesn’t help. He doesn’t like clay, just like Brooksby, but Houston is so particular that both of them can play decent matches on it.

Apart from his final here last year, I don’t really see many arguments for putting Brooksby at 1.46. He does seem better than McDonald in general, but right now it doesn’t feel that obvious to me.