The finalist who wants her revenge

Katarzyna Kawa is playing the tennis of her life in Bogota. The 33-year-old Pole, coached by Grzegorz Garczyński from Poznań, has swept aside everything in front of her on this court: 6–1 6–0 against Monnet, 6–3 6–3 against Maria. Not a single set dropped, not a single tight match. She’s back at the site of last year’s lost final against Osorio, and you can see it in her tennis: focused, determined, merciless. Her 2026 clay stats tell the same story: Return Games Won at 51.5%, Break Points Converted at 58.6%, and Return Pressure Points at 95% at 0–40, making her one of the most dangerous players in the draw when she has a break point. Her Dominance Efficiency at 1.378 this season confirms she doesn’t waste her chances.

Panna Udvardy is still alive, but hanging by a thread. The 27-year-old Hungarian has gone through her two matches in an incomprehensible rollercoaster mode: blackout in the second set against Torres Murcia, a second set lost 0–6 against a Pareja who was dominating her before collapsing in the third. Panna doesn’t dominate, she survives. Her first serve at 59.4% in 2026 remains her Achilles’ heel; she’s constantly exposed on her second serve, exactly where Kawa is at her most dangerous, with 59.1% of points won returning second serves this season. The 3–0 H2H for Kawa on clay becomes very logical when you look at these numbers and these two matches.

The match-up is lopsided in one direction. Kawa will rely on her devastating return to attack Panna’s second serve systematically, force break points, and convert them at a rate close to 59%. Udvardy needs Kawa to lose focus or to drop a set, but the Pole hasn’t shown the slightest sign of switching off since the start of the tournament. Decent conditions this Thursday in Bogota: 17.5°C, mostly sunny, 35% chance of rain, the clay will play fast and favor Kawa’s offensive tennis.