Outsider? Really? I totally disagree!

McCartney Kessler, 26 years old, United States, world No. 53, right-handed. She caused a sensation this week by taking out Stearns yesterday in a three-act match: a devastating 6-0 first set, followed by a second set lost 3-6, before closing it out 6-4. But watching the match tells a different story than the scoreline: Kessler had eight match points to finish it off, she was clearly fading at the end while Stearns was firing forehand missiles, clipping the lines with great success. A deserved but hard-fought win, not a dominant one. On clay in her WTA career she has 3 wins and 6 losses, a record that says everything about her relationship with the red or green dirt.

Yuliia Starodubtseva, 26 years old, Ukraine, world No. 89, right-handed. The market treats her as an underdog at 2.19, the rankings place her 36 spots behind her opponent, and yet on this surface she is simply in another world. An 80% win rate on WTA clay over the last 52 weeks, 8 wins and 2 losses. Yesterday against Zarazua she wrapped it up 6-1 6-0, utterly dominant from start to finish, fresh and confident. Her tennis on Har-Tru is smooth, her return is a formidable weapon, and her under-pressure stats on clay crush Kessler’s on every key scoreline.

H2H: 2–1 Kessler but only on hard courts. On clay it’s a blank slate, and on this surface the two players have absolutely nothing in common.