Not easy…

An undecided matchup for me with a player I saw in practice in Monte Carlo, doing a lot of movement and sliding drills, which is smart on his part because he’s not the typical clay-court player you’d imagine. Last season, apart from Madrid with the altitude conditions, he didn’t have big results, but he still picked up two wins in Rome, including one against today’s opponent. The Hungarian in Rome had some strong references, including a win over Alcaraz. So I’m not jumping to conclusions. The first player will need more time to adapt to the surface and conditions compared to the Hungarian. The first player’s serve quality won’t be as impactful as usual because the clay in Monte Carlo isn’t very fast, which takes away one of his major weapons. Also, this player wasn’t in good form in Indian Wells and Miami. At Indian Wells, he caught a small virus that kept him from training, and he arrived in Miami without rhythm. The Hungarian, for his part, has a lot of clay-court experience and played in Bucharest, a tournament affected by bad weather and very heavy clay, conditions he has already played in and gotten used to, recording two wins and a loss to the eventual finalist, which I see as a positive. This heavy clay works very well for Fabian’s drop shots from the Hungarian, which gives him a good chance of taking a set in this match. The downside for him is that he plays very aggressively, and in these conditions it’s hard to make the difference, whereas the Czech is a counterpunching specialist, reads opponents’ games and ball trajectories well, and often sends one more ball back. If the Hungarian varies his game well, he could overcome Menzik’s counter skills. In summary, this match brings together two different profiles, with a favorite who lacks adaptation and might take time to adjust, as he did in his last two hard-court tournaments. So I’m going to keep an eye on the Hungarian’s odds and will call them value if they’re a bit too high.