A champion who’s staggering

Tsitsipas has won this tournament 3 times, but that era feels soooo far away now

Hard to picture Tsitsipas among the favorites for this 2026 edition, but you have to admit the Greek is often average before producing his big results in Monte Carlo. At the same time, clay really is HIS preferred surface and the one where he can simply play his best tennis. I can see a pretty clear uptick in form from him at the start of this year; he’s still far from his top level, but the quality of his matches is improving and he’s getting his confidence back too. I’m coming off a Miami tournament where he crushed ADM before getting thrashed by Fils; I found him so good against ADM that I believe in his ability to do something on clay this year, I feel like he’s worked hard and he’s ready. This tournament is his, on top of that: the very slow clay in Monte Carlo gives him enough time to set up and dictate play with his forehand. You have to take him seriously here, guys!

A bit counterintuitive, but I almost feel like Cerundolo is coming in with less form, even though he hasn’t been playing great matches this season. There are one or two exceptional ones, but the rest has been pretty labored. People think of his win over Humbert, but right after that he completely fell apart against Zverev, and let me remind you that Miami is HIS tournament as well… I don’t want to be too hard on him, but I see a massive obviousness in making him the favorite against Stefanos here. The Greek leads 2–0 in the head-to-head indoors, Cerundolo doesn’t like those conditions but they’re not ideal for Tsitsipas either.

I think we have to respect Tsitsi’s track record in Monte Carlo and not forget the actual content of Cerundolo’s matches.