Does Staro go all the way?

It’s been four years since Yuliia Starodubtseva last went back to Ukraine. Four years without seeing her father, her grandparents, her home. The war froze everything, and since then she’s been living between Berlin and the tour, carrying that silent weight from match to match. After her win over Keys yesterday, she said something simple and moving: maybe winning this title could change things, make it easier to see her loved ones again. Her 2026 season had been up and down, her level was there but not her confidence, as she herself admitted. Charleston changed everything. She came in as a qualifier after a late withdrawal, with no pressure, no expectations, and went through the draw dropping only one set in five matches. On the bench next to her is Pearse Dolan, her coach and Australian partner, whom she met at Old Dominion University where they both played college tennis. A story within the story. And to complete the picture, Staro spent a year coaching on fifteen green-clay courts at Westchester Country Club after graduation, making a living by teaching beginners the basics of tennis on this particular surface. She jokes that this is her real secret weapon in Charleston. It might not be entirely a joke.

Jessica Pegula, 32 years old, United States, world No. 5, right-handed. The defending champion is a one-of-a-kind case in modern tennis. Eleven WTA titles, 10–1 in three-set matches in 2026, a machine for winning matches she shouldn’t have won. This week in Charleston she’s played five matches, all grueling, four three-setters in a row for a total of more than eleven hours on court. She’s even admitted herself that on some days she regrets choosing to play first, recovery is so tough. But she’s in the final, she’s still there, and her ability to find mental reserves when the body says no is a reality that the stats don’t capture.

Three statistical windows, three different stories. In 2026 Pegula dominates by a wide margin, match efficiency 3.228 versus 1.331, dominance ratio 1.781 versus 1.335. On 52-week clay stats she’s still better overall, 2.237 versus 1.747 in match efficiency, 100% tiebreaks won versus 83.3%. But this specific week in Charleston on this very court, Staro has put up dream numbers: breakpoints prevail at 3.250 versus 1.333 for Pegula, return games won at 59.1% versus 34.5%, break points converted at 65% versus 29.4%. Current form says Staro. Career says Pegula. And Pegula’s legs after eleven hours on court say that one match too many is a real possibility.