Revenge in the air?

This match features two players who have already faced each other five times in official competition, the latest being at Indian Wells about a month ago. That encounter ended with a well-deserved win for the Brit, who had the upper hand, but also because the Australian wasn’t in great shape. The Australian has been going through a dip in form since his victory in Rotterdam, winning only one match at the end of February and throughout March. That’s unusual for him, and the way he’s losing is a bit worrying; he’s much less consistent and his tennis is less impactful, he’s not as effective in his aggressive phases. Before this match, I saw him training in Monte Carlo with Cameron Henry, the Brit he’s facing today. They know each other very well and often play together, sometimes even doubles, though not in this tournament. The Brit has already come through a first round against a good opponent, Kekmanovic, and showed strong mental resilience. It was a good way for him to start, which can make him more confident going forward. The Australian, on the other hand, is playing his first match and still needs to get going. Over the past two years, he has exceeded his usual clay-court performances in Monte Carlo, thanks to the heaviness of the clay that suits his very mobile style. If he maintains his current level, the scenario could favor the Brit with his looping left-handed trajectories, pushing the Australian into making errors in his attacking phases, which we’ve already seen, notably at the United Cup against Ruud. The Brit, with his flatter backhand trajectories, will try to push the Australian back. The match could therefore tilt slightly in favor of the Brit thanks to his first win, his motivation, and the Australian’s current level. However, the Australian can rely on his strong performances in Monte Carlo over the past two years and knows what he has to do against the Brit; it could therefore be interesting to add a bet on a tight score with a higher number of games alongside the Brit’s victory.