Oh, the vibe!

Match that will be played on the Court des Princes in the first slot at 11 a.m. The crowd might take a bit of time to warm up, but Italy versus Brazil, usually in Monte Carlo, can get pretty heated and help both players. In terms of pure tennis, the Italian is not the favorite in slow clay conditions. We prefer him on clay at altitude given the weapons he has. I like that it’s slow in Monte Carlo, that it doesn’t skid too much, that the clay is heavy. He’s got good footing and has time to wear opponents down with his backhand slice, which allows him to neutralize the rally a bit and, when he can, step around and take the forehand with his heavy forehand that can make the difference from the back of the court. The conditions are not necessarily completely unfavorable for him, even less so given that he’s playing at home. In Monte Carlo, he generally performs better than expected. Last year, he beat the German Zverev and two years ago, the Argentinian Cerundolo. He’s a player who becomes much tougher and more focused at home and never lets go, known for being clutch. He’s a player you have to be wary of. It’s often said that it’s hard to put in a very good performance right after an excellent one. He played very well against the Russian in the previous round, but this will be a whole different battle and he’ll keep playing well. On the other side, a well-known Brazilian who got through against the Frenchman Rinderknecht. It wasn’t an easy match and the Frenchman played his part very well and showed his tennis against a very good clay-courter. Hats off to the Brazilian who finished that match with the win and thinks the conditions suit his game better than the Italian’s. So I think it’s logical that he’s the favorite. But if he’s too big a favorite, we’ll have to pay attention to Berrettini’s odds. In terms of match-up, both players will be able to back up their service games well thanks to their quality of serve and especially their forehand. Fonseca is a better clay-courter, but he’s not the best mover. So the Italian’s heavy forehand could have its effect. This match could be tight and maybe tighter than the odds suggest. I’d suggest an over on games if the prices are right. A match focused on service games, and a Brazilian who will try to wear down the Italian by targeting his backhand a lot to get the right ball to step around with his forehand and try to make the difference. Pretty much the same pattern on the Italian side. Both players are tenacious; I really think we’ll get tight game endings.