Anything to do?

When you look at this match, you immediately wonder if there’s a betting opportunity. You look at the over-game lines, with the lowest being over 17.5 games, which requires a 6–3, 6–3 to go over. That’s often the kind of reasoning in matches with Carlito. To answer that question, I’d say the Argentine doesn’t necessarily have the weapons in general, because he’s someone who gets a lot of balls back and uses his serve effectively in fast conditions with his forehand. But he’ll struggle to make a real difference on the clay in Monte Carlo. On top of that, in this edition of the tournament, he’s been a bit sluggish. He’s doing the job and getting through two tricky matches, that has to be acknowledged. But without shining in terms of tennis level. Sometimes that’s a problem for Carlito when he has too many options. We know he can get tangled up, but he hasn’t really done that for a while. In any case, it’s a risky situation because he will have a margin over the Argentine. I think if you want to bet on the over-games, it has to be with that in mind. Personally, I find the bet quite borderline and I’d rather sit it out and gather information on the Spaniard with a view to a possible reunion in the final against the Italian Jannik Sinner.