My friends

I wanted this analysis because I did the last two this season when they met, and I’m bound to ask myself the same questions

We need to know how much Zverev can hold up because it’s almost a given that he’ll be the loser tomorrow. Anything can happen of course, but Sinner is particularly strong against him, the score of their last 4 matches is pretty one-sided, and Sinner is on an 8–0 set run against him in just a few months. We’ve seen a few very one-sided scorelines and some relatively tight matches; it mostly depends on Zverev. You have to figure out whether he’s playing his best and, if that’s the case, then the game overs have value. On the other hand, the slightest fatigue, lack of rhythm, conditions, anything that can go against him tomorrow will be amplified, and in that case the under will have value.

I don’t find his tournament encouraging before facing Sinner; to me he’s holding his seed and doing what’s expected of him, but I haven’t seen a single match in his three wins where I think he looks capable of taking a set off Sinner tomorrow. Against Garin he deserves to lose, then against Bergs and Fonseca he plays well but throws away his lead pretty badly and comes close to getting punished. He’s sticking with his offensive game plan, which I really like because you can see the difference and he seems committed to it. On a good day tomorrow this game plan can work, especially if his serve shows up.

For Sinner it’s kind of the same, I think: he’s holding his seed without too much trouble, but I didn’t feel he was untouchable either. He was very solid against a pretty good Felix and wins 3 and 4. Zverev serves better and plays more offensively; let’s say he’s got a few extra arguments on his side, and I think once again the choice between game over or under is super tough...