Mission Impossible

I’ll keep this analysis very short here because Valentin’s physical condition is too worn down for him to be able to compete with the best on clay. I think that, like everyone else, I don’t have much hope for him. You can always expect something spectacular, maybe a set where he throws his whole body and soul into it, and he manages to hang on a bit against Carlito, who will make some errors because he has room to spare. But I wouldn’t go for an over, nor for a handicap, despite the symmetry between the odds of the two men on court. I don’t forget that even if Valentin has played very well, he’s not exactly a clay-court specialist. So Carlito’s full toolkit should make the difference here. The only doubt is that he might get a bit tangled up in that toolkit, in his choice of weapon. But there’s just too much of a gap, too much fatigue for Valentin, and that’s a very important parameter in his game which, barring a miracle, won’t be there today.