Without seeming like it...

We’re tied 2-2 here between the two players!

But this time, we’re on heavy high-altitude clay in the German’s kingdom. Quite different from Acapulco, which was almost a post–Australian Open warm-up tournament for Z, and very much Kecmanovic’s kingdom given how often he plays well over there.

You could say that the German didn’t play very well in Monte Carlo and that Kecma had a big match against Norrie, but this is exactly the kind of example that shows why one is No. 3 and the other is No. 58: Zverev wins while playing badly, whereas Kecma loses while playing well.

The thinking here is to see whether the game overs and handicaps are reachable for the Serb thanks to the very different MLs. The best spot for me is +20.5 games. It pays much better than +20 because a 6–4 6–4 could refund the +20, whereas +20.5 requires at least one set going to at least 7–5 if it’s a straight-sets match. It’s a first match at home in tricky conditions and with a Kecma who very often plays good tennis but still ends up losing. What’s more, the Serb knows he can beat him because he’s already done it, and not that long ago either. As soon as something can act as a little confidence boost for Kecmanovic, I think it’s important to note it.