Rublev not the favorite?

And what if the Russian were the real outsider in this match against a Navone who was recently crowned in a 250 tournament and is red hot?

For a few weeks now Navone has been stepping it up, first winning a Challenger in Cap Cana and now taking the title in Bucharest after a week of battles. The Argentine has a lot of heart but I can’t quite find his 2024 version again when I thought he was really “unplayable”; right now he’s getting very laboured wins against a lot of players and saving match points against VDZ, let’s say he’s being efficient. But there’s still quite a bit of room for his opponents and not exactly fearsome names, even if Rublev isn’t a monster on clay he’s a notch above, it would be a genuinely strong performance from Navone in this case.

A good result on paper but maybe logical in terms of the actual tennis? It all depends on Rublev: in Monte Carlo he was hampered by a shoulder/neck issue in the first round, then got a proper lesson from an excellent Bergs. I can’t figure out what’s going on with him at the moment and that’s really the issue. I like slow clay for him, it gives him time to dictate play and hit big for long stretches; I don’t get the feeling that Navone’s style bothers him either. I’d even go further and say that if he lands his first serves at a decent clip he wouldn’t be all that affected in the rallies even if his problem lingers.

So for now I’m keeping Navone in mind as the outsider, maybe I still respect Rublev a bit too much?