I don't know why but...

I really feel like believing in Struffy here. His many recent losses don’t scare me, nor does the one against today’s same opponent in the first round of Munich 2025 where he lost 0 and 2. It’s his 15th time playing this tournament, and seeing him massively raise his level in a tournament even when he’s not in form is something we’ve already seen from him. Last season, we were saying the same thing, we bet on him, and he took that massive beating. But this time, the Argentine isn’t at his best on clay this year (apart from Buenos Aires, and even then), and he’s coming off a really shaky Monte Carlo on serve.

The match-up is pretty awful for the German, and that’s what could hold me back. But I still much prefer trying the over rather than the under...