The VDZ tournament?

10 wins and 5 losses in 4 appearances, with two finals. What’s that about?

The conditions suit him well, and on top of that, once you’ve reached the final in your first appearance at a tournament, it’s possible you’ll like it a lot the following year. I’ll also note that VDZ played well in Bucharest, in similar conditions with heavy clay, rain, and cold. The Dutchman’s level, however, fluctuated quite a bit in his last match against Navone, and he failed to convert several match points. So I’m thinking we’ll probably get a good VDZ here, but not a perfect one either, with the ups and downs we know from him. He had the ranking to play Monte Carlo, and after that long match on Saturday April 4th against Navone, he didn’t go there to play, and I don’t know why. No sign of an injury, maybe the schedule was too tight. If that’s the case, he was able to arrive in Munich early enough to train.

On the other side, a Huesler who also isn’t a natural clay-courter at all, but who is transformed in Munich as well. Just look at this: 3 tight sets against Thiem in the round of 32 in 2023, 2 very tight sets against Rune in the quarterfinals in 2024. And now, he’s coming through qualifying again, playing above his usual level on clay.

The easy thing would be to say that VDZ has the perfect counter-punching game against the 1.96m Swiss attacker, hence his odds at 1.37. But a confident serve-and-volleyer can be a real pain for a lot of players. VDZ counter-punches very well, but we also know how badly he can react under pressure. So I’m going to trust the quality of both players’ level in Munich, and suggest to you...