Another great opportunity again

ADM has a clear path, it's supposed to cruise to the semifinals without too much trouble

Yeah but that was also the case last week in Monte Carlo, except he dropped a set against Norrie, didn’t convince against Blockx, and finished with a frustrating loss to Vacherot even though he was in better form. That’s often the case in ADM’s defeats, I find he can’t be a killer/clutch, he can feel the pressure and collapse, it’s nothing new. His start to the year was good, especially in Australia and then in Rotterdam, but since then he’s had few wins and hasn’t shown much in his losses, I’m really not convinced. I also feel like he’s torn mentally, you could see the lack of confidence against Vacherot, he was doubting. A De Minaur looking for his best level coming into a tournament where he usually does pretty well, it’s the right time to bounce back! He’ll have to get past Ofner in this first round; on paper it’s supposed to be an easy match but...

But Ofner is coming out of qualies and he’s in good form this season, already 18 wins for the Austrian! He’s capable of playing well everywhere, you need to catch him at the right moments and he seems to be in a good place, though I haven’t seen him play at all myself. I’m not thrilled about the surface either, it’s slow and his serve is less impactful, same for his hitting power. ADM can defend easily and make him play one more shot, or else lose himself like against Vacherot, struggling on the return and lacking weapons on serve. That’s not peak ADM at all, and caution is required for such a first-round match.