Win for the clay-courter, no surprise?

Etcheverry is confident and this season he’s one of the best players in the world on clay.

Another great first-round win for Etcheverry against a diminished Draper from the second set onwards, but the level was still high because there was some serious firepower on the other side. He says his title in Rio gives him huge confidence and you can feel it; even when he’s down on the scoreboard several times in his matches, he always (or almost always) finds a way out. Extraordinary resilience, just like Borges — the Portuguese doesn’t win much, but I can assure you he’s a mental beast. He’s been giving me a better impression over the last few matches despite a game that’s a bit too offensive on clay; he doesn’t put much arc on his shots and wants to hurt quickly. In his first round he beat, not without difficulty, the player with the worst clay-court ratio, saving 7/7 break points, but with great serving and aggression. It’s a game plan that could work against Etcheverry; the Argentinian’s profile isn’t bad for him, he likes having time to dictate play. If he keeps the same quality of serve and doesn’t let Etche push him back, he can go toe-to-toe with him and take advantage of the space Etcheverry leaves.

Because yes, Etche wins a lot, but he very often loses a set; it’s been 7 matches in a row now where he’s dropped one, and not just against top players either. I saw him looking pretty frustrated yesterday right from the start of the match against Draper; he doesn’t seem entirely at ease despite all the confidence he’s built up. The overall impression is that he’s mentally and physically too solid for most of the opponents he faces, but in terms of pure tennis it’s nothing spectacular. He’s obviously the favorite in this matchup, but I don’t believe in an easy win for him — first because that’s not really his habit, and also because Borges rarely loses by getting blown off the court.