Already?

The Belgian is following up brilliantly and proving that he’s a dangerous player on this surface, and that his Monte Carlo performances were no fluke. We’re seeing a Belgian who counterpunches and defends very well despite his 1.93m frame, makes few errors and plays the right shots. That makes him a difficult player to deal with. His odds to win are already at 2.25 even though he’s about to face a top-10 player who’s defending a final at this tournament. The first question that comes to mind is whether those odds are justified. The Belgian is winning but he isn’t pulling off huge upsets. His week in Monte Carlo was impressive, but he beat players who either aren’t clay-court specialists or weren’t in good form, and he lost to the Australian de Minaur, who is a very good player but not particularly confident at the moment. That was also the case in his first match here against the local player Yannick Hanfmann, who lacked solidity and maybe a bit of rhythm. The heavy clay conditions aren’t ideal for the German, so I put things into perspective a bit and tell myself that the Belgian’s odds might be a bit inflated. They’re also explained by the American’s performance in his first round, where he was close to losing to Nava. But as often happens, he’s the one who ends up winning, and that’s what we should focus on. The American’s odds are high because he lost to a second-tier player in Houston, and even the hard-court swing in Indian Wells and Miami didn’t end well for him, as he’s coming back from an injury. So I’m wondering whether his 1.74 odds are worth it, because he’s a player who gains confidence and knows how to win. He’s a fighter and a champion. The Belgian has less experience and, as far as the match-up goes, he’ll have to get used to the very good quality of the lefty serve. The quality of the counterpunching and the fact that the Belgian makes very few mistakes and can last a very long time make me hesitate. I think the best bet might be on a tight match between the two players rather than on picking a winner.