Analysis V2

Before the draw changed, I had already analyzed this match, which was originally scheduled for the first round.

I could almost copy/paste since we’ve got the same two players again and I’m going to say similar things, but this time it’s an R2 and we’ve seen things in the first round that could potentially change the conclusion/bet/odds. Fils is coming off a big training block where he worked like crazy, but against Atmane it wasn’t great; generally you really need to be careful with that kind of block in the middle of the season, it can kill your legs and take some time before it translates on court. That said, I still think it’s a great mental win from Fils, these are exactly the kinds of matches he was losing last season. He’s learning to win without playing his best tennis, and that’s where the top 10 guys are better than the rest. Saved two match points, played a night-session match in pretty slow conditions against an inspired Atmane – getting through that is impressive, and I think it’ll be 10x better for Fils tomorrow.

Nakashima was also surprising, but in a good way this time. The American handled the match-up against JM Cerundolo really well, he had a clear game plan and it worked. He was really pressing on serve and forehand while following into the net, and he also kept his errors down – a really clean performance, even if in the second set the match could have flipped. I don’t think Nakashima is capable of playing better than he did on this surface; he can maintain that level, but his opponent is going to get significantly stronger.

Fils is still the favourite without a shadow of a doubt, his first round doesn’t worry me that much and I see him getting back on track as soon as tomorrow.