Watch out, Banger!

Tennis fans will have their eyes glued to this match, which promises to be explosive, with a Brazilian fine-tuning his game on clay and reaching a high level against an American who won’t let himself be pushed around, like the champion he is, and who will respond with all his qualities and his ego.

Let me point out that in the previous three tournaments, the Brazilian faced the world number 1, number 2, and number 3. Today, he’s now up against the world number 6.

If he failed to clear that high hurdle in the last three tournaments, he is the clear favorite with the bookmakers here against the world number 6. Is that price justified, or is it inflated by a market that likes the Brazilian a bit too much? The answer is in the question.

It’s obvious that on clay the Brazilian is a better player than the American, but this is a special kind of clay in Munich, with the altitude and the heaviness. Whatever the surface, when the American raises his level, he becomes a different player, an animal, a fierce competitor. For that reason, I find the odds are a bit too tilted in favor of the Brazilian. Still, I like the fact that the Brazilian delivers strong performances against big servers. He’s someone who manages to stay focused on every point of a match and who sharpens his eye and improves his movement, even if it’s still not perfect. So I think that if the American wants to win, he can’t afford any dips in level, and that while the Brazilian is logically the favorite, he might be a bit too much of one. Let me remind you that the American is left-handed and can play in different styles. We’ve seen him patient at the back of the court, varying his trajectories, being aggressive, defending, coming to the net, and playing from the baseline. So I think the odds underestimate the American’s potential performance, and I’d look for something other than simply backing one player to win here as a bet.