Reunion!

The two protagonists just can’t stop facing each other; this is already their eighth encounter today. Remarkably, at the start of their head-to-head, the Argentine had the upper hand with three straight wins, all on clay. Then there were four meetings on hard courts, won by the German with a decent margin. What about today? Has the matchup swung? Is it a question of surface? I think it’s a bit of both, but in Miami this year, the German really took control of the matchup. He’s found the Argentine increasingly strong, but his own counterpunching qualities prevail over the Argentine’s disruptive forehand, whereas in their previous meeting on clay, the Argentine’s forehand hurt the German’s defense far too much. The Argentine wasn’t in good form on the clay in Monte Carlo and even in Munich, or against a Dutchman. He was quite tense at the start of the match. His level is more likely to fluctuate than the German’s. The German had a rest day and crushed the Canadian Diallo. So I think he’ll be ready for another battle, one he’ll very likely win. I’m not saying it’ll be easy, because the Argentine is gaining momentum in the European clay-court tournaments, but he’s still too fragile on his service games. So against a player this strong on serve, the risk is too high for me.