The last one..

Gaël Monfils is playing in his last Madrid Masters 1000. Although he has good memories in Monte Carlo, notably a final against Nadal, Madrid seems to mean less to him despite his 14 appearances and two quarterfinals. Historically, the tournament has not been very successful for him, which is understandable because his opponents add pressure and aggression here. Gaël, who needs time to set up his defensive game, finds the altitude conditions less favorable, allowing his opponents more free points. At the moment, he is neither in ideal conditions nor in optimal form. He is planning a celebration at Roland Garros for his final appearance there. In Monte Carlo, he showed physical improvement, but in terms of tennis level and managing key moments, he was not there yet. So we can expect a Gaël who slightly raises his physical and tennis level, still far from perfect, and logically an underdog against the Argentine Hugo Carabelli.

The Argentine, effective on clay since Marrakech and apparently recovered from his thigh injury, has nevertheless not been exceptional in my opinion. His odds at 1.58 might be considered too low.

Analyzing the matchup between the two players, Carabelli, solid by definition, is likely to wear Gaël down a bit. The profile of the tireless Argentine opponent does not seem favorable for Gaël, who knows he has to play more offensively. This approach, encouraged by his wife Svitolina a year ago, could prove to be a double-edged sword in Madrid. Either he makes errors and falls into a comfortable matchup for the Argentine, or he makes the difference in the short game. In that case, his odds seem a bit too low.