Where does German really stand now?

The 35-year-old German Struff is going through a rough patch. Last season, he suffered many early-round defeats in tournaments, with only a few breakthroughs at Wimbledon, Kitzbühel, and the US Open. This year, the question is whether he’ll be able to put together winning streaks again. He had to withdraw from the Munich tournament due to illness and arrives in Madrid without confidence, with only one clay-court match under his belt against the Georgian Basilashvili in Monte Carlo, where he lost in straight sets. The only thing that makes up for the German’s profile here is his very good results in this tournament, which naturally suits his game. Notably, he reached the final in 2023 and the third round in 2024 against Carlos Alcaraz, a match he lost by a hair’s breadth. Even when a player is not very confident, returning to a tournament where you’ve enjoyed success always gives you renewed motivation. Another argument in his favor is that the Frenchman Muller, although a tough player on this surface, has recently suffered clay-court defeats to opponents who hit hard and serve well, such as Medjedovic, the Spaniard Jodard, and Virtanen last week in Barcelona. Perhaps it’s a match-up issue that isn’t so straightforward for the Frenchman, as their previous meetings have produced one win each, but always in very tight three-set matches. I’m convinced the Frenchman is in much better form at the moment, but the feeling remains that the German doesn’t want to give up, doesn’t want to admit that he can no longer compete with top-100 players. It’s in Madrid that he can regain his strength. The Frenchman will certainly have to be considered the favorite, but be careful not to overrate him.