Two Americans unlike the others.

First meeting between the two Americans, with Emilio Nava logically the favorite in this match given his experience on clay. The American played a lot on clay last year to develop his real tennis, and although there are hard courts at his academy, the Ferrero Academy where he trained also offered specific work on this surface. That’s a notable difference compared with Jenson Brooksby, who played college tennis on blue Greenset courts 95% of the time. Historically, Brooksby’s results on clay have been weaker, and above all he has played far fewer matches on it. The tournaments where he has nevertheless done well on this surface include Houston, where he won seven matches in a row last season and proved he’s capable of playing well on fast clay. Still, I’d also like to talk about the American’s form, as he has disappointed in his recent matches, notably with a physical condition a bit too limited to compete with the best. Since the Houston tournament 21 days ago, the American has deliberately taken a break to rebuild his fitness. There may have been an underlying injury. This is a comeback match for him, which will require some adjustment, and he’s a player who needs to be finely tuned to play his clever tennis. Even if he returns physically ready, in clay conditions that are not natural for him and at Madrid’s altitude, against a player who hits very hard, there will still be an adaptation period. If he finds his rhythm quickly enough, he has the counterpunching and fighting game to push Nava into overly risky tennis. We know he can play extremely good tennis thanks to his explosiveness and arm speed, but he struggles to sustain his highest level over an entire match. His loss to Molcan last week in Munich is proof of that, because Molcan is an opponent who defends very well and put the American in a tricky spot where he had to attack very cleanly. The conditions in Munich are different: the clay is heavy and slow, which is not the case in Madrid, so he will have a better chance of winning this time. It makes sense to make him the favorite, but his price shouldn’t be too low because the match-up could become uncomfortable for him.