Disappointing

Both men were disappointing in their previous tournament in Munich: the Belgian looked fragile, impatient in rallies, and quickly started making unforced errors. His opponent, slow but very good at countering and defending, only made that weakness more obvious. It’s worth noting his match against the German Zverev in Monte Carlo, which was also disappointing with similar patterns. As for the Croatian, disappointing against the German Altmaier in Munich, it was perhaps the first time this season that Čilić seemed less invested, even though the conditions didn’t suit his style, with low, skidding balls and disruptive shots. I didn’t expect to see him miss so quickly and give the impression of being less focused.

Today, we see both players again in different conditions in Madrid, with altitude and a fast clay court. Conditions that are more favorable for both. For the Belgian, he’ll be able to play more aggressively and have more impact, even though he hasn’t yet won in Madrid despite two appearances. The Croatian, with his 12 appearances at this tournament, has sometimes performed very well, notably a quarter-final in 2019. I think he’s going to get back on track. It’s a Masters 1000, one of his possibly last seasons. He has always been professional, especially this season, so I’m not taking his match in Munich into account. He’s used to playing in Madrid. However, his flat shots and straight trajectories could cause long errors at altitude. That said, he’s managed it in the past, and after his early loss in Munich, he probably went to train in Madrid quickly.

I’m more worried about the Belgian; his game can actually adapt very well to altitude, as he showed in Gstaad in Switzerland. In particular his powerful serve and his heavy forehand with a lot of topspin, which helps keep the ball in the court. The match will depend a lot on him: if he manages to play at a good level, he’ll be superior and won’t cause too many problems for the Croat, managing to move him around while still keeping the ball in the court. Mentally, I place more trust in the Croats.

This is a complex analysis because Zizou has shown fluctuating levels in his recent matches and needs to get back to winning ways to rebuild confidence. In Monte Carlo, he was lucky to play Mannarino in the first round. Here, he’ll be facing a very dangerous player right away, one who doesn’t let anything go, and if this player takes the lead from the start, it becomes more and more difficult to come back. The Croat knows how to maintain his lead and finds the right shots, the right intensity, the right serves at the right moments. Zizou, on the other hand, has often started his matches poorly, getting broken straight away and lacking discipline compared to the Croat, which could be costly for him. That’s my analysis of the match.