First round then he’s out?

Sonego is clearly on a mission to get his rhythm back and I think he wants to be ready mainly to have a good tournament in Rome.

A good Rome tournament starts with a good tournament in Madrid to arrive with confidence and build up rhythm; that’s exactly what Sonego is badly lacking after several months out. For his comeback in Barcelona he got through a round by beating Martinez – or rather Martinez beat himself, he was that bad. Sonego didn’t play particularly well but he’s gutsy and his mentality is still intact, unlike Martinez, so the Italian got through a round but then took a real beating against Rublev, which was logical. With a short week of rest and a level that will naturally keep rising over the next few weeks, you could still say it’s early for Sonego, but I’m keeping last week’s lesson in mind. His record in Madrid isn’t good, but he mostly had nightmare draws: in 4 appearances he lost to ADM, Sinner, Draper, and Struff the year the German made the final. Clay at altitude, fairly quick, suits his serve/forehand combo and his aggressive game.

He’s facing the qualifier Lajovic; the Serb is still around despite a few months in the shadows, he plays his Challengers and shows up in the big tournaments from time to time. He just beat Arnaldi and Rodesch quite easily, I really liked his matches and every time I see him this season I still find him at the level. He opened as the bookmakers’ favorite around 1.75, justified by his two wins in qualies and the fact that Sonego isn’t at his best yet – is there still value? I’m tempted to say yes if he wins comfortably tomorrow, but I think Sonego has enough energy and heart to hang in there and fight hard in a first round before collapsing in R2. So I’ll say watch out for the Italian, but to me Lajovic is much stronger at managing this kind of match than a Martinez, who was incapable of tightening up his game.