More playable for Berrettini?

I saw the Italian losing to Collignon, maybe with this change of opponent it's better for him?

Or maybe not! One thing's for sure, Prizmic is in great form! The Croatian is crushing the Challengers and already has 19 wins this season! He just came through qualifying, narrowly beating O'Connell and then cruising against Piroz. The back-to-back wins were tougher in Q2 of qualifying than tomorrow, given how fast his match was, and besides, he's physically strong and reliable. I do have a slight problem with him, though: he's not performing well. His wins are "logical"; he only beats players who are weaker than him on paper. ALL his wins this year have come as the favorite; every time he's the underdog, he loses. I don't want to dwell on this stat, but it's more of a confirmation of the matches I watch. Outside of Challengers (which I rarely watch), he doesn't play great matches when I see him. Is he stronger than Berrettini, and would a win for him be logical? I'm not convinced at all

Berrettini isn't having a great year; he's also struggling to perform and isn't beating many players who are in form. It's not as pronounced as Prizmic's, but at least we know what he's capable of. Mentally, there's a significant difference between the two. Prizmic is consistently tense and nervous in his matches, while you can count on Berrettini even on an off day; he'll fight. I don't think this is a great first round for Berrettini, but it's already more manageable than Collignon, in my opinion. Prizmic remains dangerous and in good form; he counters well and doesn't make mistakes. If he manages to return the ball, then he has all the tools to break Berrettini down in rallies, but he doesn't have a very good serve and loses quite a few close matches.

A Berrettini victory via a tiebreak or a third set wouldn't surprise me; I'm just afraid of betting on Prizmic and being disappointed because he can't seem to step up.