Vallejo, favorite?

This pure earthling and fan of underdogs finds himself the favorite against Dimitrov at a Masters 1000; it might make some people cringe, but it’s deserved.

And yes, because Dimitrov really is just a shadow of his former self this 2026 season. Maybe with a few more months and a bit more match rhythm, he’ll regain some momentum and level of play, but for now it’s still very poor. He’s still capable of producing a few sets at a good level, but physically he’s done when matches drag on too long, and I also feel his game just isn’t as good as it used to be, plain and simple. He’s just dropped out of the top 100 and is starting a comeback that looks like it’s going to be difficult, even though he obviously still has all the talent, game, and mentality to get back to the top.

The problem is that on clay, his game is less effective and he’s simply less dangerous. The conditions in Madrid can allow him to rack up quite a few free points in short rallies, especially on serve or with some net play, but historically it’s not a tournament where he has excelled. He’s had a few good results, but he’s also had some big disappointments. Nothing incredible to report on that front.

When you compare him to Vallejo, who doesn’t have a lot of experience on the main tour but is already building a big reputation on the Challenger circuit with a huge number of wins this season and last year, the Paraguayan is naturally the favorite in this match because he handles clay very well, deals with the altitude conditions, and is also coming out of qualifying having shown a great level. He’s a player on the rise who excels on clay.

He has a massive kick serve, a very loopy forehand, and his shots adapt perfectly to Madrid’s high bounce. He hasn’t really produced any standout results on the main tour yet, but I saw him take a first set against Tommy Paul in Houston while playing very clean tennis. I think he’s capable, both in the short term and the long term, of pulling off results against very strong players on clay.