The Russian qualifier against the out-of-form Indonesian star

Janice Tjen is a player who has done everything backwards. After going through Pepperdine University, graduating in sociology, and only turning pro at 22, she then skipped steps at a crazy speed to break into the top 40. But 2026 doesn’t look like 2025: a 9–10 record, a series of mixed results against players at her level, and an almost blank WTA clay résumé this season. Her ranking says she’s the best player in this match on paper, and the 52-week clay metrics confirm a real technical edge on the surface. Except that Madrid, on this Wednesday afternoon, is her first clay match at WTA 1000 level, with no recent rhythm on the surface, up against a player who comes in with two qualifying matches already in her legs at this same altitude.

Alina Charaeva is a complete unknown for the vast majority of bettors, and that’s exactly where the appeal of this match lies. The 23‑year‑old Russian has built a solid 2026 season with 8 wins in 13 matches on clay, she’s coming off convincing qualifying rounds with 52 winners and an effective first serve at 72%, and she’s already dealt with the altitude of the Caja Mágica twice while Tjen is coming in cold.