How far can he go?

Clash of generations between the two men, with 18 years separating them. The question we’re all asking is: how far can the Croatian Marin Čilić go in his career? And why not in this Madrid tournament? He’s using the conditions to his advantage to put pressure on his opponents.

Nevertheless, the Brazilian Fonseca is logically the favorite, and by quite a margin. He handles big servers on clay very well and manages to throw them off for two reasons: first, he makes them move and neutralizes their power from the back of the court. Second, he has a strong ability to concentrate and a fairly steady level of play throughout matches. He doesn’t let himself get caught out like, for example, Zizou Bergs did against Marin Čilić in the previous round, because of a fluctuation in level. Now, the Brazilian João Fonseca maintains a high level of intensity and doesn’t have a drop in form when he needs to keep tightening up his game and holding serve, against a server who is always lurking. That’s what the Brazilian has been doing since the European clay tournaments, notably against Rinderknech, Berrettini, Zverev, Tabilo, Shelton, and Gabriel Diallo in Monte Carlo. Even if the conditions here favor the Croatian’s power, I think the Brazilian is well equipped. With odds at 1.30, I don’t think it’s really worth it though. The real question here is more whether he can be flawless for a first round in these conditions, because it often takes a bit of time to get going in a tournament. But despite that, the Brazilian manages his schedule very well. The only small risk for me here would be the sequence of events: Indian Wells, then Miami, then Monte Carlo, then Munich, then Madrid. I noticed a bit of fatigue against Shelton in his last match in Munich. That’s fine against Čilić because they’ll play shorter points more often, that’s obvious. On the other hand, I think we need to stay alert for the upcoming matches.