Danger for Nakashima?

The American continues his run on clay. Like every season, he’s coming off some decent matches with solid tennis and good serving quality, and I even have to say his movement on clay isn’t that bad. However, he runs into a clear ceiling and it’s rare for him to overperform on this surface. Last week in Barcelona, he was already a bit limited physically in his first match and it quickly showed. In the next round in Madrid, he’ll arrive much fresher, and his entry in doubles is a sign to me that he needs to get more match time. Last season here, he had a good tournament, beating Hofner then Koboli before losing in three sets to Medvedev. These are really conditions that suit him and allow him to play a style of tennis closer to what he produces on hard courts. On the other side, we have a Belgian who keeps proving he can be a solid top-30 player in the future. Even if he didn’t find the solution against the American Ben Shelton in Munich, he had a remarkable tournament in Monte-Carlo and an excellent first match against the tough Christian Garin. This win really shows the Belgian’s resilience, combining defensive skills with some powerful shots. Given his results on clay, he is the logical favorite here, especially if you also factor in his current form. But we must be careful not to underestimate him, because the American as an underdog with no pressure is always a dangerous player, if only thanks to the quality of his serve games.