Tien far from being the favorite

And yes, the American is very much the underdog in this match, and once again I think that makes sense.

Deserved because Vallejo plays almost exclusively on clay and is quite simply a better clay-courter than Tien. He’s just signed the biggest win of his young career by knocking out Dimitrov, a match he controlled even if he tightened up a bit when it came to closing it out, but that’s normal. He’s a nightmare to face on this lively clay; with his kick and the weight he puts into his shots, you really have to attack intelligently and be ready to fight for a long time to get the better of Vallejo. Now he’s more confident than ever with already 4 wins in this tournament and a very manageable draw for him.

Tien is one of the seeded players everyone wanted to draw; the American is nowhere near the same level on clay as he is elsewhere. Very few matches on it and not much desire to improve, he says it’s his coach who’s more excited than he is about playing on clay. For his only tournament on clay before Madrid, he beat Basavareddy, who is just as inexperienced as he is on this surface, before logically losing to the Argentine clay specialist Burruchaga. A traditional clay court isn’t great for him, but in Madrid with that pop on his forehand, I tell myself why not. He doesn’t lose his court IQ and his talent on top of that, it’s just that he needs to adapt a bit more and he’ll do that with time. Right now he’s still very limited and the underdog in this match, that’s normal and logical. On the other hand, we see Michelsen playing well and there have been a few Americans who’ve made runs here historically; this clay is unique and can allow Tien to be better here than elsewhere.

It’s more speculative than anything else though...