Big Lorenzo.

Despite the history of their matchups, where we can see that the Dutchman leads by two wins to none and has never lost to the Italian, I think it’s going to be very difficult today for Griekspoor to get past the Italian.

First of all, their head-to-head matches go back to 2024 and 2020 and were played on hard court, with the second match in Rotterdam, at home for Griekspoor in the Netherlands, indoors. I’d add that the scores were very tight. I think the advantage has to go to the Italian here on clay and in 2026.

Let me remind you that neither player is really in their best form, to say the least, but I see in Lorenzo a much faster and much more reliable progression than in Griekspoor. If Griekspoor won each of their previous encounters, it’s not a coincidence. We know that this type of player, especially on hard court, doesn’t suit Lorenzo, but not only has he improved in this matchup, I also find that the conditions in Madrid favor him more than his opponent.

Note that Griekspoor has finally found his way back to victory against the Bosnian Dzumur, but his match was still far from perfect. Their encounter will be played at 12:30 on the Manolo Santana central court, which means with a lot of space behind the baseline, a good situation for the Italian’s defense. For me, it’s a match with little suspense, even though I like the matchup for Griekspoor, which is not bad at all, and his return to form, or at least to better focus. Knowing what Lorenzo is chasing, I just don’t believe in it. Now I’m going to look at the odds because I think the Italian is still going to be priced very low.