Arthur still at 1.15…

While he practically played a coin flip against the Peruvian in his first match, Arthur once again finds himself priced at 1.15 against a supposedly formidable opponent.

Maybe the bookmakers think that, just like in Barcelona where Arthur was one point away from losing in the first round and then went on to win the tournament, Arthur’s first round here in Madrid could also be a good omen for him. Why not, after all, it’s true that this first match can give him back the right mental attitude to adopt against Emilio Nava. Nevertheless, the first thing that comes to mind when seeing such a low price is to go check whether the game overs and handicaps are worth taking. Indeed, those are the logical bets that come to mind, but let’s analyze this match first.

First of all, Arthur’s performance, for me, has to be explained by the fact that he was getting back into the swing of things after a title in Barcelona. That’s never easy. You can also add maybe a bit of complacency, even if that’s not necessarily meant in a negative way. But I think Arthur was not expecting such a level from his opponent. All that put Arthur in a state of nervousness and frustration that made him passive, which showed, for example, in a rather deep court position and a few hammer-grip returns.

We can therefore assume a better start for the Frenchman. But it’s not a given that the American won’t once again put him in a tense situation. Indeed, Emilio Nava is on fire at the moment. He has already beaten Arthur at the Blois Challenger in 2022. He’s just beaten the world No. 17, Valentin Vacherot, both mentally and physically. He finds himself here in a no-pressure match where a large majority of the crowd will be chanting his name. A situation many would love to be in before facing the Frenchman.

There will be a battle for territory with each player’s powerful, heavy forehand. The backhand crosscourt will be a bit tougher for the American, and therefore that backhand diagonal will be hugely important. Advantage here to Arthur, who really has nothing to be ashamed of with that shot. On the other hand, on serve, I give a slight edge to Emilio Nava, who truly has an incredible serve. So we can lean toward a match-up in favor of the Frenchman.

But on Nava’s side, there’s a flawless serve when he’s motivated, as he is here in Madrid. Versus Arthur’s counterpunching qualities, which will really test the American during his attacking phases. And the American defends less well when it’s Arthur who’s on the attack. The question here will be to assess whether the clutch factor, the quality of serve, and Emilio Nava’s huge ambition can give us a value bet here.