Very interesting, this match!

As soon as I see the Canadian priced at 1.40, I feel like that’s a bit low. But we mustn’t forget that Félix is a former finalist here, that he can reach a very high level on clay, and that the altitude conditions suit his game.

Can Blockx play the role of a dangerous outsider? On paper, yes. He’s a really mentally strong player, and that’s probably the biggest argument you can make against Félix. He also defends very well from the baseline. That’s what he did in his last two matches here in Madrid, before winning both of them in three sets.

However, one thing that worries me about the Belgian is his last defeat on clay in Munich against Ben Shelton, where I found him a bit too passive. He was standing far behind his baseline to give himself time to return the American’s powerful shots. But in the end, he seemed to get caught out. That’s pretty much what I’m afraid of against Félix.

One remarkable thing about the Canadian recently is that he doesn’t drop sets when he wins his matches. Yet he was behind against Čilić in Monte Carlo, and against Ruud as well. But he’s the one who comes back, and he’s the one who wins the key points. That’s unusual enough for him that it’s worth pointing out. So I’m a bit torn here. I have a bit more faith in a complete performance from the Canadian and in a favorable match-up thanks to his power. But all it takes is for one small cog to break for us to see a drop in level and a very tight match that wouldn’t reflect the odds we have here.