One hell of a flip?

The odds for our two guys seem close to a coin flip. If we can figure out which one should be a bit more of a favorite, we might have a value bet here.

I’ll be frank and direct. The Italian on clay in Madrid appeals to me more than our friend Daniil who, granted, is defending two consecutive quarterfinals here, but beats a lot of players who aren’t true clay-court specialists. Which makes sense since we’re in Madrid. But the Russian’s game is less impactful on this surface, with his trajectories and movement.

On top of that, I find that the Italian, if he’s having a good day, is very solid and doesn’t make many errors. I think the match depends a lot on the Italian, because if he puts in a strong performance, he should in my view be the favorite in today’s conditions.

In his two matches here in Madrid, he showed a good level and a good attitude. The sequence of tournaments may be less of an issue when you’ve got Rome in sight and then Roland Garros. I’ll add that the Italian is capable of returning well, as he proved against Zverev in his semifinal in Munich. I’m counting on him here not to fall into Anil’s trap. In any case, I wouldn’t set his odds this high. My proposed bet here will be clear. Tell me what you think in the comments.