4th time!!

Another Zverev/Sinner analysis to do for me this season, this puzzle doesn’t actually seem as complicated as expected, it seems...

Over the first three matches this season I really focused on Zverev’s level to try and figure out whether, on the day, he was capable of performing and taking a set, or at least making a good impression. It’s hard to talk about Sinner because in terms of consistency there’s nothing better on tour, so hoping for a dip or a low level is really more speculation than anything else. He’ll be fully locked in for this final and, given what he’s said, there might even be a scenario where he skips Rome afterwards to arrive really rested for Roland Garros, so let’s just say he’s going to give 300% in this final with no holding back. His week has been great, he’s finishing very strong but, as usual, he’s showing a few physical signs, except in the end he always wins and hangs in there.

For Zverev it’s not really a surprise to see him in the final this week; there was a time when he was untouchable in this tournament and he even said he played his best tennis here. Now he’s back in the final, ready to give everything as well. His level has clearly been good this week, his serve is on, and so is his attacking game. He’s in good shape but it’s almost never enough to bother Sinner; his three losses to him this season have all been in straight sets, he’s gone to a tiebreak once and that’s it, it’s poor. On a good serving and playing day he can definitely do something in Madrid, it’s maybe the best possible tournament to hope to see him beat Sinner. But the reality is he just can’t manage it, and logically he should lose again tomorrow.