Surprising to see McNally as the outsider

Caty McNally is not your typical baseliner. The 24-year-old American is above all an elite doubles player, with nine WTA doubles titles, an innate feel at the net, and an ability to shorten rallies and take the ball early that contrasts sharply with the usual clay-court baseliner profile. In Madrid last week, she took out Mboko 6-4 6-1, beat Siniaková after saving two match points, and only lost to Kostyuk, the eventual tournament champion. She comes into Rome with the confidence of a player who knows she can beat anyone on a good day, and on slow clay with a high bounce, her forays to the net can unsettle an opponent who needs time to construct points.

Daria Kasatkina is a fluid, versatile baseliner with a genuine clay-court résumé—semifinalist here in 2022—but her 2026 WTA season on clay remains worrying at 3–5. Her WTA 125 title in La Bisbal d'Empordà last week gave her a boost of confidence—five wins in a row under her belt—but that came against a Challenger-level field far from what she’ll face here. She needs time and long rallies to impose her baseline game. Against a McNally who comes forward and shortens points, she may never find her rhythm.