Two troubled souls in 2026

We’re looking at a knife-edge duel for this first round at the Foro Italico. On one side, there’s Tonka’s meteoric rise, having taken a huge mental step forward in 2026, but now finding herself on her least natural surface. On the other, Kami, a true clay-court warrior who, despite some questionable recent form, knows exactly how to disrupt the Croatian’s game. Their last clash in Angers last December was a nightmare for Ružić: she had a big lead before collapsing physically and mentally under the Russian’s heavy topspin. On Roman clay, that scenario could easily repeat itself if Antonia fails to shorten the rallies. The anecdote from their 2020 match in Zagreb on clay already confirms this trend: Rakhimova loves to absorb her opponent’s power in order to counterattack more effectively.

This is a pure 50/50. Ružić’s odds have drifted because the market is wary of her lack of experience on clay at WTA 1000 level. Rakhimova has the edge in their head-to-head, but her current losing streak is worrying. For me, the risk is too high to stake anything on the straight winner. This is the textbook definition of a trap match, where nerves are likely to override pure tennis.