Surprising, that odds line, isn’t it?

Tirante is at 1.54 right now, how come?

The Argentine has really stepped up this season and is establishing himself as an extremely tough clay-court player who’s very hard to beat. He also has a very aggressive game and serves pretty well. He’s in form and confident, keeps saying he’s feeling the ball really well and playing his best tennis this season, which makes him the logical favorite in this match against wildcard Cadenasso. But why is he at 1.54?

I’m discovering Cadenasso. I caught up on his Challenger matches from last week since he beat a few names we know, like De Jong or Bellucci, and he also took a set off Arnaldi. His odds clearly come from that; they would have been much higher without that great week. Do we really need to worry about him? Is he already capable of beating a player like Tirante?

I can’t say I was impressed by what I saw. He’s a pure clay-courter just the way we like them, meaning a heavy grinder who puts a lot of height on all his shots, whether it’s the forehand or the backhand. He can manage to lull or break his opponents’ rhythm, and that’s what he managed to do against Bellucci and De Jong in particular. But he relies heavily on his opponents’ unforced errors. Against Arnaldi, he wins the first set—well, more like Arnaldi gave him the first set—before dialing in and absolutely steamrolling him.

I can understand why people might be wary of Cadenasso given that he’s a local wildcard and he’s just had a strong Challenger run. But on the other hand, he’s fairly experienced at this level and his game still seems far from complete and stable enough to put him in the same bracket as Tirante or make him someone who should really trouble him.