Here comes Denis again…

The Canadian pulled one of his classic stunts again in Madrid, getting absolutely thrashed in the first round 6-2, 6-1, right after a very promising tournament in Munich. He had actually found a sort of balance between consistency and power. Everyone was saying that in the altitude conditions of Madrid, he was potentially going to bother a lot of players. It turned out to be the complete opposite. When I look at his clay-court stats, I notice that he’s generally more effective in Rome than in Madrid. He likes the conditions here. When you think about it, it’s pretty logical. He has a bit more time to set himself and unleash his trademark slaps. A tournament at sea level allows him to keep the ball in the court. In Munich, the ball flies a bit more, but the clay is heavy. He has a bit more time to find his balance. I don’t want to fall into the Shapovalov trap, where he played a non-match in Madrid and now shows up here in another mindset of just throwing the match away. I think there’s a decent chance he’ll be in good shape. Now, he’s playing someone who can really cause him problems. The Argentine has been in very good form for a few tournaments now. He’s ironed out those mental flaws that used to make him shake at the end of sets, especially when he was ahead. And I feel like he’s taken on a new dimension recently. Above all, he’s got exactly the counter-punching, defensive game you need to push the Canadian into overplaying. And that’s really the first thing you look for in an opponent of the Canadian, who never does things by halves. As usual, if Shapovalov plays a good match, he’ll be the one deciding the outcome. That’s why it’s always hard to price a match he’s involved in, because he could lose in two sets just as easily as win in two sets. So I think the odds are quite well set, and I don’t feel like going for the Argentine’s win at 1.55. As always with Shapovalov, you have to target the highest odds possible and stake small. For me, that would be over 20.5 games at 1.69 as the smaller-priced option, and Shapovalov +2.5 games at 2.36.