A single argument

For me, we need to be wary of one thing here: the audience

I honestly struggle to see how Bellucci can come out on top on this kind of clay against such a good clay-courter as Burruchaga... Bellucci is not a clay player at all, he’s way too impatient in his game and has no clay-court nous. He doesn’t win many matches on this surface and also takes some real beatdowns, last year he lost 4 and 2 against Martinez and he’s coming off a loss to Cadenasso in a challenger recently. It’s weak, and apart from a crazy crowd behind him that pushes and lifts him, I don’t really see what he can do.

Burruchaga is so smart on this surface and he’s also in form this season, he’s coming off a final in Houston where he came very close to the title and then took time to rest afterwards. A very good pick, but for his return he didn’t shine in the challenger last week: a laboured win against Pellegrino, then two match points saved against Giron before choking against Hurkacz. It’s not bad, far from it, but still. I think it was mainly a tune‑up tournament after almost a month without an official match, I’m not worried and even like that he’s totally capable of beating Bellucci; in any case the Italian is going to beat himself.